Online news – 2009 predictions

After a very interesting 2008 – see my previous post for my pics for the best of last year – the online news scene in South Africa is set for some major changes in 2009.

The main driver of change should be the increased uptake of broadband as the Seacom cable comes online – hopefully toward the middle of 2009. Whereas this will obviously change the kind of content news and other websites can offer (more mg style big pics please), the more interesting thing may be the change of demographic that it will facilitate.

In 2009 expect to see the online demographic shifting to a slightly lower level of income and lower level of education. In some sense then, it might be the year that online media in South Africa goes fully mainstream and mass market.

This is not new of course – the drop of mg.co.za down the rankings is a strong indication that this has already started happening. In 2009 though, expect this trend to accelerate.

My feeling is that this would lead to a split of sorts in the news market:

- Some sites will chase the mass market – which will mean dumbing down and sensationalizing there offering. I.e. expect a site like News24 to continue pushing trashy celeb news and running three sex columns a week.

- Anecdotally, there already seems to be a backlash against this from more serious users. As the News24’s and IOL’s become more dumbed down, expect more discerning readers to migrate to sites like mg.co.za or Business Day. Thus, niche sites built around higher journalistic standards, or the needs of a more business or politically minded user, will grow as a kind of anti-pole to the mass market. These sites might not have the numbers, but hopefully the higher LSM users will go some way to securing them better ad revenue.

The rankings

Barring catastrophe, News24 will grow there lead over IOL and the chasing pack over the coming year. Four reasons for this are:
- They are perfectly placed to swoop up the growth in lower demographic users since their offering is already weighed toward that side of the market.
- Their main opposition (IOL) are dropping the ball at every opportunity.
- News24’s expected re-design should do wonders for the site. (If it is anything like fin24.com’s recent re-design.)
- Brand momentum.

Unless IOL gets some proper new management, they will keep floundering in second place, and might in time even be overtaken by a site like thetimes.co.za. I’m not sure that will happen this year though. The power of content and referrals from the newspapers in the Independent group to prop up the lacklustre online efforts should not be underestimated. (I still think IOL can beat News24 under the right kind of leadership.)

The Times should continue their phenomenal rise in 2009. They are doing the basics better than News24 and IOL, and in time more users should catch on to this. They may already be benefiting from pitching their content at a slightly higher level than News24.

The above three sites are roughly those in competition for the growing mass market. By contrasts, some niche sites that should prosper in 2009 are Beeld.com and MG.co.za.

Beeld grew quite substantially in 2008 and this should continue in 2009. As a niche, Afrikaans users are still very poorly catered for and there are still huge gaps to fill in this market. It is a bit odd that Media24 is totally unchallenged in this arena.

Even though mg.co.za has slipped down the rankings over the last year, they should still have a pretty rosy future. They have what is probably the best-looking site in South Africa, and their greater awareness of African affairs make them the best placed local site to exploit growing internet access in the rest of Africa. They are missing a few tricks though by not putting more of the content from the paper onto the website.

Finally, 2009 might also be the year in which blogging matures in South Africa. While Thought Leader and the 24.com blogs haven’t quite cracked it – TL has too much nonsense blogs and 24.com is hopelessly restrictive compared to say Wordpress or blogger - someone will hopefully find a HuffingtonPost like key with which to unlock the potential that there certainly is.

To summarise then:
- Mass marketization of sites like News24 to cash in on broadband growth.
- Discerning users fleeing to and fuelling niche sites like mg.co.za
- Some, as yet unknown, blogging phenomenon that will answer the unfulfilled need for good online comment and analysis.